2026 World Cup picks, odds, predictions: Best bets for Sweden-France, Mexico-Ecuador on Tuesday

Argentina remains a serious contender, especially if key players stay fit. England could also reach the final if their young squad maintains its current trajectory. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first edition to feature 48 nations and the first hosted by three countries — the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The expanded format introduces 12 groups and a Round of 32 knockout stage, making it the biggest World Cup in history with 104 total matches played across 16 iconic venues. Argentina’s World Cup 2026 campaign has been a demonstration of controlled authority. Lionel Scaloni’s side posted three wins from three in group play, beating Algeria 3-0, Austria 2-0 and Jordan 3-1, and Messi has been in remarkable form at 39 years old, driving his side through the group phase with six goals.

World Cup forecast: Latest odds and updates

„Sweden began their group stage campaign with a 5-1 win against Tunisia, but they then lost 5-1 to the Netherlands. A 1-1 draw with Japan means they conceded seven games in three group stage games,” Green said.
Les Éléphants have reached the World Cup knockout stages for the first time in their history after finishing second in Group E behind Germany on goal difference.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage continues on Monday with three more round of 32 ties, as Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands bid to join Canada in the last 16 of the tournament.
France, with their deeper, lavishly gifted squad, can gain revenge as the fresher of the two over this slog of a tournament.
The issue for both is they will first have to negotiate their way through difficult groups and, if they don’t finish top in the initial stage, that could hinder them with a tougher path to the final.
In terms of pressing, I have the feeling the Atlas Lions can really trouble the Dutch.
The 2026 World Cup is co-hosted by the United States (11 venues), Mexico (3 venues), and Canada (2 venues) across 16 stadiums.
Colombia were not even at the last World Cup but are a team to watch out for this time.
Veteran Ghana coach Carlos Queiroz knows how to navigate World Cup ties as an underdog.

They must get past Northern Ireland and potentially Wales to make it, with both of those sides hoping to join fellow home nations England and Scotland. Inspirational Croatia captain Luka Modrić is hoping to appear at his fifth World Cup at the age of 40, and no team will want to see Croatia drawn into their group from Pot 2. The resurgence of James Rodríguez made headlines at that competition, as he led the way for chances created (20) and assists (six) – that latter tally equalled the record for a single edition, alongside Brazil’s Alex in 2003. The Netherlands may lack the star power of the other main favourites and are slipping under the radar with many, but the supercomputer thinks they are worthy of consideration. Vinícius has played under five different head coaches since joining Real Madrid, and 149 of his 192 goal involvements for the club came during Ancelotti’s second spell in charge of Los Blancos.

Who are Yahoo users picking in tournament?

Les Éléphants have reached the World Cup knockout stages for the first time in their history after finishing second in Group E behind Germany on goal difference.
Die Mannschaft actually locked horns with Paraguay in the last-16 stage of the 2002 World Cup, recording a 1-0 victory courtesy of a late effort from Oliver Neuville.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage continues on Monday with three more round of 32 ties, as Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands bid to join Canada in the last 16 of the tournament.
If a team wants to win the World Cup this summer, they will likely have to overcome a formidable obstacle in Spain.
Argentina are in clinical form and showing no signs of complacency heading into the knockout rounds.
Norway are the dark horse, and Lionel Messi heads the Golden Boot race after becoming the World Cup’s all-time top scorer.
Don’t be surprised if at least one traditional power exits before the quarter-finals.
The issue for both is they will first have to negotiate their way through difficult groups and, if they don’t finish top in the initial stage, that could hinder them with a tougher path to the final.
But Memphis Depay remains a talisman for his nation, becoming their all-time leading scorer when he netted his 51st international goal in September.
With the Round of 32 underway and this 48-team field wide open, we will update these picks after every round.

They could give Germany a run for their money in Group E and are given a 43.4% chance of reaching the last 16. But Mexico are given only a 1.0% chance of victory, putting them behind fellow co-hosts United States, Japan and Ecuador, and level with Senegal. Mexico, who will play South Africa in the opening game at Estadio Azteca, also fare reasonably well in our sims. They are given a 47.8% chance of topping Group A, which also contains South Korea and Czechia. It’s not a big surprise to see leading European nations join traditional World Cup heavyweights Argentina and Brazil as the top 10 teams tipped to challenge this summer. Netherlands (3.6%) and Norway (3.5%) rank highest in terms of possible World Cup winners.

The Opta supercomputer is reasonably positive about the chances of the three co-host nations, suggesting all of them are likely to produce solid – albeit not necessarily spectacular – tournaments. Erling Haaland struck 16 times in just eight games, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign. We have covered the seven teams who are most likely to win the tournament, but there are also a few other potential winners. They have topped their first-round pool in every World Cup since 1982 and have a 60.4% chance of winning Group C. Of course, they were famously crowned world champions in South Africa – but that 2010 success also represents the only time they have reached the semi-finals from their last 14 participations. They made it to the UEFA Nations League final – where it took a penalty shootout for Portugal to beat them – and eased through qualification, topping Türkiye to go unbeaten across six games.

Match Predictions

With Messi complemented by two high-profile strikers still in their prime, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Alvarez, Argentina should not be short of goals. The striker is already the record goalscorer for England and has remained a pivotal figure for Tuchel, under whom the early returns have been strong. A rampant Kane scored an astonishing 61 club goals across all competitions (64 if you also include the Club World Cup) and finished the season in fine style with two consecutive hat-tricks.

Who will be the breakout star of the tournament?

Colombia also deserve their lofty status in our projections, as they come in the tournament off the back of a run to the final of the 2024 Copa América, having outscored all other teams at that tournament with 12 goals. Eleven of the tournament’s venues are in the USA, and Mauricio Pochettino’s side are assigned a 0.9% chance of going all the way. They will be placed in Group D, with two of their first-round games taking place in Los Angeles and the other in Seattle. Mbappé is closing in on Olivier Giroud’s mark of 57 goals for France, having netted 55 times in his 93 caps. Ahead of this week’s draw, we have taken a deep dive into the Opta supercomputer’s first set of World Cup predictions to assess who is most likely to lift the trophy. Ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026 draw on Friday 5 December, the Opta supercomputer has produced its early predictions for this summer’s tournament in North America.

Panama vs England Prediction: World Cup 2026 Preview & Best Bets

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Germany are given a 54.7 percent chance of winning inside 90 minutes, while Paraguay’s chances stand at 23.1 percent. The remaining 22.3 percent of simulations ended level after normal time, sending the tie to extra time and possibly penalties. Brazil and Japan match up in a Round of 32 contest in the World Cup 2026 on Monday. Brazil won Group C to advance to the knockout round, while Japan were runners-up in Group F. Both squads were undefeated in the 2026 World Cup group stage, with Brazil having 7 points, while the Japanese notched 5 points. These teams last met in Oct. 2025 in which Japan won for the first time in 14 matches versus the Brazilians. The World Cup 2026 knockout stage ruthlessly separates those who have managed a passage through a group from those who can compete at the elite level over 90 minutes.

Estadio Azteca is the most well-known in Mexico, but sites in Monterrey and Guadalajara will also be used. Then, in the United States, Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Seattle will be host cities. NFL stadiums have been retrofitted and rebranded to host the games due to FIFA rules, so you won’t see usual signage for places like AT&T Stadium; it will be labeled Dallas Stadium instead. Here are Paul Carr’s power rankings of all 48 teams in the 2026 World Cup, separated into five distinct tiers.

He is worth including in any anytime scorer selections at the best available price.
Set deposit controls, take regular breaks, and know when to step back.
He’s also been red-hot in 2026, posting an 18-8 record over his last 26 UCL picks, returning nearly $1,000 in profit.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first edition to feature 48 nations and the first hosted by three countries — the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
The expanded format introduces 12 groups and a Round of 32 knockout stage, making it the biggest World Cup in history with 104 total matches played across 16 iconic venues.
Tactics and managerial decision-making can be the difference between winning and losing a World Cup game, and there are plenty of skippers in the tournament that have had success coaching around the globe.
Indeed, because Paraguay beat Germany on penalties yesterday, France will now face them in the R16.
The comments came against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Iran and the US following recent military attacks and a fragile ceasefire.
Portugal will likely have one last dance with a slightly older Cristiano Ronaldo.
The same cannot be said of Norway and their rested and refreshed talisman Erling Haaland.

All 12 Group Stage Predictions

They will be placed in Group D, with two of their first-round games taking place in Los Angeles and the other in Seattle.
Their organised defensive shape has been the foundation throughout, keeping clean sheets against Spain and Saudi Arabia and conceding only twice across three games.
Pink boots have also become one of the biggest trends at the tournament.
I’m taking Czechia and Mexico to advance, with South Korea finishing as one of the best third‑place teams behind Son Heung-Min.
They still should have enough to advance as one of the best third‑place teams ahead of Haiti.
The remaining 22.3 percent of simulations ended level after normal time, sending the tie to extra time and possibly penalties.
A more realistic aim might be getting through the groups after impressing in AFC qualification – beating out sides like Qatar and United Arab Emirates.
Free bets are valid 30 days, only deposits with cards, ApplePay, & Pay by Bank are eligible.
The 2026 World Cup continues with three more Round of 32 matchups on Tuesday.
Vinícius has played under five different head coaches since joining Real Madrid, and 149 of his 192 goal involvements for the club came during Ancelotti’s second spell in charge of Los Blancos.
48 teams, 104 matches across 16 host cities in the United States, Canada and Mexico — sharp, data-driven forecasts and betting tips for every fixture, from the group stage to the final.
The last time France were in the same group with Senegal, it didn’t end well.

I personally love this matchup, with two of Africa’s strongest sides potentially meeting in the knockout round. Ivory Coast return to the World Cup after a 12‑year absence, built around a core of prime‑age players. While their physicality and attacking threat stand out, their defense is arguably their greatest strength, led by Roma’s Evan N’Dicka. That said, Senegal appear the more complete side, with greater star power likely to make the difference. This contest may be decided in extra time or penalties, favoring Senegal.

This involves two teams from CONCACAF and one team from the AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL and OFC. The two highest-ranked teams will go directly into the finals, and the four lowest-ranked nations will meet in bracket semi-finals, with the winners of the two bracket finals reaching the FIFA World Cup 26. The FIFA World Cup is one of the most highly-anticipated football events and commands enormous betting interest from players.

England: 11.8%

This can impact a team’s chances heavily, especially if it is a top goalscorer or stalwart defender that is essential to the way the nation plays. There are many teams who have a shot at winning the 2026 World Cup, with high expectations placed on nations like Argentina, France and Spain, who have all won recent World Cups or major tournaments in recent years. In our pick ’em for the World Cup, users select who they think will win each of the 12 groups ahead of the tournament’s first game on Thursday. Then, after the group stage concludes and 32 of the tournament’s 48 teams move on to the knockout rounds, users can then pick the results of each of the 31 elimination games.

Norway will be the team nobody wishes to draw from Pot 3, having steamrolled their way through the UEFA qualifiers with a perfect eight wins and 37 goals – the most of any team. Mexico, the team that defeated the USA in the Gold Cup final, are the host nation viewed as most likely to shock the world and lift the trophy, with a 1.3% probability. The Oranje’s run to the semi-finals of Euro 2024 – losing late on to England – was their best at any tournament since finishing third at the 2014 World Cup. Ancelotti was only in charge for the final five games of their campaign, but less than eight months into his reign, he has already overseen surprise defeats to Bolivia and Japan, as well as poor draws with Ecuador and Tunisia. But when the tournament begins, the likelihood is that Ronaldo will hog the headlines, just as he did in Qatar in 2022 and at Euro 2024. At the former tournament, Ronaldo was dropped for a last-16 tie against Switzerland after a series of ineffective displays, and his replacement Gonçalo Ramos scored a hat-trick in a 6-1 win.

Tuesday’s tie, however, will be their first knockout match against an African nation. Looking beyond this match, Germany have a 78.6 percent chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 4.4 percent probability of winning the World Cup. Before locking in any Brazil vs. Japan picks or World Cup 2026 predictions, you need to see what proven soccer expert Jon Eimer has to say. World Cup 2026 Outright – Argentina @ 4/1Argentina sit second in the World Cup 2026 outright winner market at 4/1. As reigning champions with Messi in this sort of form and a full squad at Scaloni’s disposal, they remain a serious title contender.

We don’t want to overpromise, and we have a small team, so expect one update per day, but you will often see intraday updates after important matches. By popular request, we’ve changed the projected match results table to reflect the score after 90 minutes — not including 2026 fifa world cup qualified teams extra time. However, the model does simulate extra time and penalties, which generally favor the stronger side, in projecting which team advances. We’ve added a new chart to show you the method of advancement (regulation, extra time, penalties) just to cover all our bases.

Yamal created the most chances at the tournament, with 19, while only teammate Nico Williams (2.1) had more expected assists (xA) than his 2.0. It is little surprise, then, that Spain are our predictive model’s early World Cup favourites, going all the way in 17.0% of tournament predictions. Six of the teams appearing at the tournament are still to be decided, with four qualifying via the UEFA play-offs and another two via the inter-confederation playoffs. On 5 December, allowing fans of all nations to start plotting their routes to a possible coronation at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium. Get expert predictions for every match, updated daily throughout the tournament. If Norway advance through the group stage, Haaland’s clinical finishing and aerial ability make him the most likely top scorer.

The expanded 48-team format added this extra knockout round for the first time, sending 32 of the 48 teams into single-elimination ties before the Round of 16. France are the favorites to win the World Cup 2026 after a perfect group stage. They swept Group I, the toughest group in the draw, ahead of defending champions Argentina. We are calling a France vs Argentina final, with France lifting the trophy 2-1 on July 19. The defending champions won Group J with a perfect record and drew the kinder half of the bracket. Messi is in record-breaking form, and Argentina’s path to the final avoids most of the other heavyweights until the semifinals.

Team News

The draw was rated at 13.3 percent, leaving Jordan – who have already been eliminated from the 2026 tournament – with just an 8.8 percent chance of pulling off a famous upset and claiming their first-ever World Cup win. Pink boots have also become one of the biggest trends at the tournament. There are quite often, and unfortunately, major injuries that rule out certain players from the World Cup Finals, much to the devastation of the players themselves and their nations.

Indy Sport’s writers have made their selections for USA, Canada and Mexico 2026

Get the latest World Cup 2026 predictions and betting tips, powered by our AI algorithm, NT Apex. We have analyzed 64 matches across 48 teams in the World Cup 2026, achieving a best-tip accuracy of over 71.9%. Predictions cover Final Result, Under/Over, Both Teams to Score, Correct Score, xG, Corners, and Ball Possession.

Portugal go into the World Cup with momentum after winning the Nations League under Roberto Martínez. Portugal are fifth favourites to triumph, as Cristiano Ronaldo seeks the one honour still missing from his trophy cabinet. Harry Kane shouldn’t be short of service and Tuchel will be buoyed by the fact his captain is coming off a sensational campaign with Bayern Munich that saw him win the European Golden Shoe award. France are seen as having the most difficult group of the leading teams, as they face Norway, Senegal and Iraq in Group I. That is helpful to coach Luis de la Fuente given there are doubts over the fitness of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal for their initial games as he recovers from a hamstring injury. As such a wide range of countries with very different World Cup histories fight it out, the 23rd edition may well prove to be the most compelling.

Congo DR and Uzbekistan are unlikely to factor heavily, making this a high‑stakes, two‑team race. Spain vs England – A repeat of the 2024 Euro final may produce the same heartbreaking outcome for the 1966 World Cup winners. France vs Morocco – Another semi-final appearance is likely to elude Morocco, with Les Bleus expected to prevail on sheer firepower.

The best teams you won’t see at the 2026 World Cup

There are two other potentially pivotal group clashes to circle on your calendar by the time we reach MD3, as France take on Norway in Foxborough on 26 June, while Colombia battle Portugal in Miami a day later.
Our site ensures you have the latest predictions for the World Cup 2026, including qualifiers, and encourages you to make smarter betting decisions with analytical research going into each and every projection we provide.
However, Spain’s technical quality and squad depth should ultimately tip the balance in their favour.
Taremi urged FIFA to resolve the issues, saying the governing body had failed to provide the support promised before the tournament.
If you’re after a free-flowing side, stick to the Spains of this world.
France will pursue a third straight final and third title overall, while past winners Spain enter as European champions.
With the World Soccer Ticket, fans get access to top leagues, live TV, and streaming — all in one place — so you never miss the action.
Looking ahead all the way to the final, two teams stand out from the crowd.
Germany are rebuilding under fresh management and remain ever-dangerous.
But if France make the quarter-finals (they did so in 47.9% of sims), they then start to fare increasingly better in our projections.

With the World Soccer Ticket, fans get access to top leagues, live TV, and streaming — all in one place — so you never miss the action. There are no major injury concerns for either side, with both managers expected to field their strongest available lineups. Both nations are chasing a place in the last 16, but only one will keep their World Cup dream alive. Some links to betting partners or promotional offers on MyFootballFacts may result in a commission to help support our site. These include betting offers, free bets, and casino promotions as well as other affiliate commissions —all subject to change and individual terms and conditions. The group stage of the 2026 World Cup has come to a close and it’s full steam ahead into the round of 32.

Deschamps also lifted the trophy as a player when he was captain in 1998 and this will be Kylian Mbappé’s first World Cup as France skipper. If Spain are to triumph, it is likely Lamine Yamal will play a key role. Their Euro 2024 triumph came the day after Yamal’s 17th birthday, as he replaced Pelé (1958, 17 years, 249 days) as the youngest player to feature in a World Cup or European Championship final.

Gustavo Alfaro’s team will enter this match off the back of a goalless draw with Australia, while their one success this summer was a 1-0 victory over Turkey. This has all of the makings of a very, very interesting match, and we have found it difficult to pick a winner here. Netherlands have been impressive this summer, but we are expecting Morocco to record a 2-1 victory in order to progress to the round of 16. Cape Verde made the knockout stage in just 33.9% of the sims (the fourth-lowest rate of any team), with Curaçao’s chance being even lower at 18.5% (the second-lowest, only above Haiti’s 15.9%). Croatia rank just above co-hosts USA and place 15th overall in terms of potential winners with a 1.6% chance.

Here’s how to watch all 104 World Cup matches for free, and here’s a channel guide for the group stage games. For those who prefer Spanish-language broadcasts, 92 games will be on Telemundo, with the other 12 matches (all simultaneous group finales) on Universo. The Yahoo Sports soccer team has its picks for Golden Ball, Golden Boot, Golden Glove, biggest disappointments and more right here.

ELO Football Ratings (35% weight)

Those teams round out the top 10 favourites, with Belgium next with a 1.9% probability. Many members of the Red Devils’ ‘Golden Generation’ remain in the fold, even if the years are starting to catch up with them. But it remains to be seen whether 40-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa will earn a historic call-up. He is the third player – alongside Messi and Ronaldo – able to appear at an unprecedented sixth edition of the World Cup and was selected for the Gold Cup, so watch this space. That previous dry spell ended, of course, in the United States, and Brazil are assigned a 5.6% chance of another stateside triumph. Portugal went out to France at the next stage, as Ronaldo ended the tournament without a goal from 23 shots and 3.6 xG – the second-highest tally at the competition.

World Cup team nicknames

Anyone wanting to follow his World Cup betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could see big returns. Reigning champion Argentina, led by Lionel Messi, are +1000 as they seek to become the first back-to-back winners since Brazil in 1962. Meanwhile, the USMNT are +6000 longshots to win on home soil, with co-host Mexico also at +6000 and Canada longshots at +17500. Before making any 2026 World Cup picks or predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s soccer insider Martin Green has to say.

Understanding the 2026 FIFA World Cup and How It Works

The expanded format will give more teams a chance, but it will also test the endurance and tactical flexibility of every squad. The 2026 FIFA World Cup features 48 teams — the largest in tournament history. Teams are divided into 12 groups of 4, with the top 2 from each group advancing to a 32-team knockout bracket. Simulate or predict every match of the 48-team tournament — group stage through the final.

World Cup Day 15 What to Watch: USMNT aims for undefeated group play; Netherlands, Japan, Sweden battle for Group F

Ecuador shocked already-qualified Germany to reach this phase, but expect Javier Aguirre’s men to make it four wins out of four. There have also been stirring underdog stories, with minnow Cape Verde qualifying as Group H runners-up behind European champions Spain, and Iran similarly going through the round-robin phase undefeated against the odds. All the tournament favorites have come through the group stage largely unscathed.

England are overwhelming favourites to claim all three points in New Jersey. According to the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 pre-match simulations, the team has a 78.5 percent chance of winning. Similarly in the tournament itself, you might find that teams have already qualified for the knockout stage, or might be eliminated, which could lend itself to valuable FIFA World Cup betting opportunities if analysed correctly. Perhaps none has had more recent success on the international stage as France’s Didier Deschamps.

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Looking beyond this match, Germany have a 78.6 percent chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 4.4 percent probability of winning the World Cup.
Elsewhere, the presence of departing Liverpool great Mohamed Salah means Egypt (0.4%) are among the biggest threats from the bottom half of our projections.
Historical data suggests 5 of 8 QF teams will be from Europe + South America.
The Opta supercomputer makes Germany the clear favourites to progress.
That also means there are more nations than ever to make soccer picks and World Cup futures bets on, ahead of the opening match taking place on Thursday, June 11.
The likes of Vinicius Jr and Raphinha will be looking forward to leaving a mark on a World Cup in a way they haven’t before.
Brilliant Bernardo Silva and the livewire Rafael Leao are in Roberto Martinez’s squad too.
Portugal’s depth and momentum give them the edge, and I see them pulling off the upset to reach their first World Cup final.
France head the betting to win the 2026 World Cup on Sunday July 19.
We are calling a France vs Argentina final, with France lifting the trophy 2-1 on July 19.
They could give Germany a run for their money in Group E and are given a 43.4% chance of reaching the last 16.
There are quite often, and unfortunately, major injuries that rule out certain players from the World Cup Finals, much to the devastation of the players themselves and their nations.

In terms of pressing, I have the feeling the Atlas Lions can really trouble the Dutch. Place a max £1 bet on “Over 0.5 Goals” in the Over/Under Goals market in England vs DR Congo World Cup match on Wednesday, 1st July. Winnings paid in cash at normal odds and are topped up to the enhanced price in Free Bet Builder bets. Free bets are valid 30 days, only deposits with cards, ApplePay, & Pay by Bank are eligible. Ismael Saibari, who is set to make the move to Bayern Munich this summer, has scored three times in three appearances at the 2026 World Cup and will again lead the line.

But they should have too much for South Africa, even if their often erratic finishing threatens to leave the game in the balance. The disappointing campaign prompted President Lee to order a full review of the national team programme, describing the result as “deeply bewildering” and questioning both the team’s structure and Hong’s appointment. South Korea head coach Hong Myung-bo has resigned following his side’s group-stage elimination from the World Cup, after coming under heavy criticism from President Lee Jae-myung. Morocco, meanwhile, arrive in a confident mood after beating Scotland and are aiming for back-to-back World Cup wins over European opponents for the first time. The Opta supercomputer makes Brazil the favourites to reach the next round. This promises to be one of the most evenly matched ties of the Round of 32.

With 48 teams in the 2026 World Cup, there’s more disparity across the four-team groups than we’re typically used to. Now that there are 12 groups instead of eight, it’s hard to find a Group of Death with four exceptionally strong teams. Here’s the breakdown on all of them, including what you need to know about each team. The 2026 World Cup is the first men’s World Cup in the United States since the 1994 tournament, and it’ll be unlike any World Cup ever played.

Iran’s World Cup exit leaves fans divided after dramatic finish

Pochettino has had no choice but to experiment – in November, Giovani Reyna’s return to the squad saw him become the 51st player to start a game for the USMNT in 2025. Pochettino’s side did reach the final of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, despite star names including Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Folarin Balogun and Antonee Robinson missing the tournament. The USMNT appointed Pochettino after of a humiliating group-stage exit as Copa América hosts last year, and things did not immediately improve as the Argentine lost five of his first 10 matches at the helm. France became the sixth team to win the World Cup as hosts in 1998, but no side has accomplished the feat since then. One recurring issue in recent years has been their lack of a true centre-forward. But Memphis Depay remains a talisman for his nation, becoming their all-time leading scorer when he netted his 51st international goal in September.

None of the three co-hosts are favorites, but all three reached the knockouts and all three have a real story to tell. Lionel Messi made history in the group stage, overtaking Miroslav Klose as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer. He is the front-runner for the 2026 Golden Boot, with France’s Kylian Mbappe and Norway’s Erling Haaland the closest challengers.

With the 48-team format, expect slight dilution — 10–12 top-20 teams likely. The 2026 knockout format starts with Round of 32 — a new round created by the 48-team expansion. 8 third-placed teams join the 24 automatic qualifiers (1st + 2nd from each of 12 groups), making the R32 path unprecedented. FIFA Annex C determines R32 pairings based on which groups the third-placed teams come from. Norway, Morocco, Colombia and Japan are the dark horses, and all four reached the Round of 32. Norway came through the toughest group in their first World Cup since 1998, Colombia won Group K, Morocco backed up their 2022 run, and Japan again showed they can beat anyone.

World Cup 2026: Julián Quiñones, Raúl Jiménez lead Mexico to dominant 2-0 win over South Africa

Here you’ll find detailed estimates for how likely all teams are to reach each round or to win the tournament. These teams met in the last 16 in Qatar and Argentina had to endure some nervy moments. Lionel Scaloni’s men have two major tournament successes in their back pocket since then and can make easy work of this game. The first 48–team field in World Cup history has been filed down to 32 for the knockout stages. Head coach Amir Ghalenoei described the team’s misfortune as extraordinary after Iran became the first side at the tournament to have three goals ruled out by VAR.

Despite the promise shown by their young core, the Americans still seem a step behind the world’s true elite. Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun have had moments at the club level, but that’s never been extended to the national team. Argentina, meanwhile, remain built for high-pressure knockout matches and possess an edge in composure and quality. Spain’s track record in major international competitions gives them the clear edge in this scenario. They’ve consistently found ways to advance deep into tournaments, and that experience matters.

Ronald Koeman’s side won 47.6 percent of the 25,000 pre-match simulations, while Morocco progressed in 25.0 percent. The remaining 27.4 percent of simulations were level after 90 minutes, sending the match to extra time and, if necessary, penalties. Brazil won 57.3 percent of the 25,000 pre-match simulations, while Japan were victorious in 19.7 percent. The remaining 23.0 percent of simulations ended level after 90 minutes, meaning the tie would be decided in extra time or a penalty shootout.

Teams can survive the group stage without being dominant, adding a new level of strategy and scoreboard-watching. Belgium vs Best 3rd place Group A/E/H/I/J – Perhaps freeing themselves from the shackles of their trophyless ‘golden generation’ is exactly what Belgium needed to unlock their full potential. Brazil vs Japan – Under normal circumstances, this would be a no-brainer. However, Brazil’s form has been far from convincing, while Japan’s ability to compete with top sides suggests this could be far more competitive than expected. South Korea vs Bosnia & Herzegovina – Despite overcoming Italy in the qualifying play-offs, this tie could spell the end of Bosnia’s World Cup journey.

Best World Cup group stage games

Despite an underwhelming qualifying campaign, Carlo Ancelotti’s charges remain hot favourites to advance as group winners, with the Atlas Lions expected to settle for a runner-up finish. Haaland struck 16 of those goals, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign. Mere weeks into Jesse Marsch’s reign, Canada reached the semi-finals on their Copa América debut, losing 2-0 to eventual winners Argentina. Only a penalty shootout denied them a bronze medal, as they lost to Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay in the third-place play-off. Canada are deemed the least likely of the host nations to go all the way, winning the tournament in just 0.4% of our simulations, though they are only a year removed from a historic tournament run.